Wayne, Ed and Tom,
Attached are the following files to be discussed on the call today:
- Water Service Center Strategic Analysis, including value ranges under various scenarios
Indexed revenue analysis, which shows a comparison of the projected revenues under the various scenarios
included in the report
Look forward to discussing at 2.00 pm ET.
Juan
~~] Juan Santambrogio | Restructuring
y Ernst & Young LLP
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Office +1 404 817 5156 | Mobile +1 404 229 2567 | juan santambroqio@ey com
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89
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_438
City of Flint
Flint Water Service Center Strategic Analysis
22 October 2014
EY
Building a better
working world
Reliance Restricted
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_439
Executive summary
The Flint Water Service Center (WSC) houses both the Water Distribution and Sewer Maintenance Divisions of
the City of Flint. These Divisions convey water to Flint residents and businesses and remove the sewage to the
Water Pollution Control Facility. Management is exploring various strategic alternatives regarding the future
direction and ownership of WSC. To support the assessment, you requested EY provide valuation advisory
services to evaluate various alternatives for WSC. As part of our analysis, we calculated a range of values for
WSC as shown below:
—____ Range ofCalculated Values
Low Mid-point High
Cost of equity 11.0% 10.0% 9.0%
Calculated net asset value $125,426,300 $142,899,300 $165,307,200
indicated range of Calculated Values of City of Flint’s net asset value
The calculated range of values reflects the perspective of a strategic investor maximizing its allowable return in a
regulated water utility such as WSC. We calculated additional ranges of value based on management's
projections, with no adjustments for an investor's allowable return, and our observed findings related to potential
operating expense reductions of 10-30% as shown below. The sensitivities were included to illustrate how a
potential buyer could achieve its desired return while accomplishing the City of Flint’s stated goal of not raising
rates to customers above the levels determined by their baseline forecasts.
Range of Calculated Values
Low Mid-point High
Disoourtad cash fow analysis - No ra’a adjustment 46,519,400 50,779,300 56,220,200
Discourted cash tow analysis - 10.0% reduction in operating expenses 125,487,500 142,946,400 165,382,000
Discounted cash flowy analysis - 20.0% reduction in operating expenses 125,508,800 142,999,500 165,416,900
Discourted cash flow anziyss - 30 0% reduction in operating expenses 125,550,000 143,040,600 165,471,800
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis EY
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_440
Scope of service
Flint Water Service Center
The valuation services consisted of performing calculations of value related to WSC and performing
services related to the development of cash flow forecast sensitivities that are based upon market rate of
return considerations for WSC. We performed the following procedures in the completion of our services:
re Research regarding rates of return for regulated utilities operating in a similar industry
tr Development of an appropriate discount rate for WSC
t Development of forecast sensitivities based upon market rate of return considerations
» Analysis of the performance and market position of WSC relative to similar publicly-traded
companies
r Analysis of financial data and valuation multiples of similar publicly-traded companies
t Calculations’ of a value for the equity value of WSC utilizing applicable valuation methodologies
r Consideration of the Income Approach to value
Prepared a presentation summarizing the methodologies employed in our analysis and the
assumptions on which our analysis was based
'Caiculations do not constitute an “appraisal", as that term is defined in BVS-I, General Requirements for Developing a Business Valuation, of the
Business Valuation Standards of the American Society of Appraisers. A calculation does not represent EY’s opinion or recommendation of value
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis EY
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_441
Valuation methodologies
Three different approaches to value may be employed to estimate value: (i) the Income Approach, (ii) the Market Approach and (iii) the
Cost Approach. The nature of the investment or asset and the availability of data will dictate which approaches are ultimately utilized to
derive value.
Income Approach
The Income Approach focuses on the income-producing capability of the subject company or asset. The underlying premise of this
approach is that the value of an asset can be measured by the present worth of the net economic benefit (cash receipts, less cash
outlays) to be received over the life of the subject asset. The steps followed in applying this approach include:
> Estimating the expected after-tax cash flows attributable to the asset over its life
> Converting these after-tax cash flows to present value through “discounting”
Es The discounting process uses a rate of return that accounts for both the time value of money and investment risk factors. Finally, the
present values of the after-tax cash flows over the life of the asset are totaled to arrive at an indication of the calculated value for the
asset.
Market Approach
» The Market Approach measures value based on what other purchasers in the market have paid for assets that can be considered
reasonably similar to those being valued. When the Market Approach is utilized, data is collected on the prices paid for reasonably
comparable assets. Adjustments are made to the prices paid to compensate for differences between reasonably similar assets and
the asset being valued.
Cost Approach
b The Cost Approach is based on the premise that a prudent investor would pay no more for an asset than its replacement or
reproduction cost new. The cost to replace the asset would include the cost of constructing a similar asset of equivalent utility at
prices applicable at the time of the valuation analysis. To arrive at an estimate of value using the Cost Approach, the replacement or
reproduction cost new is estimated and reduced for appraisal depreciation.
Selected approach
& Based on facts and circumstances and availability of information, we utilized the Income Approach in arriving at the calculated range
of equity values for WSC.
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis EY
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_442
Strategic Value Assumptions Summary
We utilized the following assumptions in our valuation analysis, which were developed based on
discussions with management and/or through industry research:
re Transaction expected to be financed with 45.0% equity and 55.0% debt
t City of Flint expected to retain and redeploy existing cash
Future capital expenditures expected to be financed with 45.0% equity and 55.0% debt
> Allowable return on equity assumed to be equal to 11.0%
t Outstanding collectibles available to a strategic buyer immediately
c= Transition to raw water from Karegnondi Water Authority (KWA) in 2015
> Post-employment benefits liability currently funded through cash flows
t+ Outstanding debt of $21.8 million extinguished at time of transaction
t Deferred tax liability available to the buyer due to temporary differences between book and tax
calculations
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_443
City of Flint
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis
Table of contents
Date of valuation: 31 March 2014
Exhibits
Summary of calculated values Exhibit A
Discounted cash flow analysis sensitivity - Base case Exhibit B
Revenue Butld-Up - Base case Exhibit C
Discounted cash flow analysis sensitivity - No rate adjustment Exhibit D
Revenue Build-Up - No rate adjustment Exhibit E
Discounted cash flow analysis sensitivity - 10.0% reduction in operating expenses Exhibit F
Revenue Bulld-Up - 10.0% reduction in operating expenses Exhibit G
Discounted cash flow analysis sensitivity - 20.0% reduction in operating expenses Exhibit H
Revenue Build-Up ~ 20.0% reduction In operating expenses Exhibit |
Discounted cash flow analysis sensitivity - 30.0% reduction in operating expenses Exhibit J
Revenue Build-Up - 30.0% reduction in operating expenses Exhibit K
Cost of Equity Exhibt L
Rate of return benchmarking Exihibit M.1
Return on equity benchmarking Exhibit M.2
Equity multiples Exhibit N
Balance sheet - Water Exhibit 0.1
Balance sheet - Wastewater Exhibit 0.2
Operating and maintenance benchmarking Exhibit P
© 2014 by Ernst & Young LLP, All rights reserved.
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_444
City of Flint Exhibit A
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis
Summary of Calculated Values
Date of valuation: 31 March 2014
(uss)
Range of Cateutated Vatues
Low Mid-point High
Cost of equity 11.0% 10.0% 9.0%
Calculated net asset value $125,426,300 $142,899,300 $165,307,200
Low Mid-point High
Discounted cash flow analysis - Base Case{a) $125,426,300 $142,899,300 $165,307,200
Discounted cash flow analysis - No rate adjustment (b) 46,519,400 50,779,300 58,220,300
Discounted cash flow analysis - 10.0% reduction in operating expenses (c) 125,467,500 142,946,400 165,362,000
Discounted cash flow analysis - 20.0% reduction in operating expenses (d) 125,508,800 142,993,500 165,416,900
Discounted cash flow analysis - 30.0% reduction m operating expenses (e) 125,580,000 143,040,600 165,471,800
Notes :
{a} Based on projections provided by Raftelis Financial Consultants, Inc. and includes rate adjustments to achieve required annual retum on equity of 11.0%. See Exhibit B.
(b) Based on projections provided by Raftelis Financial Consultants, Inc with no additional rate adjustments.
(c) Refects 2 10.0% reduction In operating expenses from the projections provided by Raftelis Financial Consultants, Inc. and associated rate adjustments to achleve the required annual return on equity of 11.0%.
(0) Reflects a 20.0% reduction in operating expenses from the projections provided by Raftelis Financial Consultants, Inc. and associated rate adjustments to achieve the required annual retum on equity of 11.0%.
(d) Reflects a 30.0% reduction in operating expenses from the projections provided by Raftelis Financial Consultants, Inc. and associated rate adjustments to achieve the required annual return on equity of 11.0%.
Source of underiying data and certain information’ City of Flint. Some totals may not add due to rounding. See statement of
© 2014 by Emst & Young LLP. All rights reserved.
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_445
City of Flint Exhibit B
Fira WSC Statagic Analysis - Consolidated Pap tote
Discourted cash Oow antalysis sensitivity - Base case(e)
Dasa of vabsation: 31 March 2016
uss)
Forte 20,
eertts eatey_feapor Fo os tte ath perks ent Da
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Exstng Deprecetan™ iis sooo sone sce soos smoce sopos
‘exten Deorocetor* eo e258 2onse 2s 321 ore) $260 8138060
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OBk dy Eres a Toney LLP Aaligees retereed,
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_446
City of Flint Exhibit B
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis - Consolidated Page 2 of 2
Discounted Cash Flow Method - Terminal value
Date of vafuation: 31 March 2014
(USS)
Terminal! value calculation - Consolidated
Normalized working capital Constant model Normafized
2025 total operating revenues $109,367,499 FCFE, normalized $14,431,739
Long-term growth rate 20%
NWC requirement (a) 5.0% FCFE Terminal year growth rate 2.0%
Implied increase / (decrease) in NWC ($107,223) FCFE, year ahead 74,720,374
OWided by: Capitalization rate 8.0%
Capitalized value at end of estimation period $184,004,674
Normalized debt-free cash flow Remaining debt funded acquisition payments (80,453,082)
EBITDA $46,023,473
Discount period Wi?
Depreciation (normalized) 26,523,332 Present value factor @ 10% 0.3590
Operating income $19,500,142 Terminal value 347,940,886
Interest expense (5,620,581)
Return on debt funded rate base (5,521,822)
Eamings before taxes $8,357,738
Income taxes 3,251,160
Eamings after taxes 5,108,578
Add Depreciation (normalized) 26,523,332
(Increase) / decrease mn NWC. (107,223)
Less: Principal repayments - Capex related (5,155,448)
Add Principal borrowings - Capex related 14,587,832
Less Capital expenditures (26,523,332)
Normalized FCFE $14,431,739
Notes:
EBIT = Eamings before interest and taxes; FCFE = Free cash flow to equity; NWC = Debt-free net working capltal
(a) Based on the consideration of Clty of Flint's ten year average of net working capital as a percentage of revenue
© 2014 by Ernst & Young LLP. All rights reserved.
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_447
City of Flint Exhibit C
Flint WSC Stratagic Analysis - Consolidated
Discounted cash flow analysis sensitivity - Revenue Bulld-Up(a)
Date of valuation: 31 March 2014
(uss)
For the 3.0
months ending Test For the twelve month: 30 June.
2014 2015 aie 217 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2
Cost of water (2) 0 0 o 6,900,000 8,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000
Oporatng expanses 15,250,343 BS 5AB 2H 44,109,434 BAI 45,952,615 47,305,913 48,704,882 $0,151,176 51,846,450 53,182,482 54,791,026 56,444,026
Existing Depreciation (b) 1,251,871 5,020,036 §,020,036 §,020,036 5,020,036 §,020,036 5,020,036 §,020,036 5,020,038, 5,020,038 5,020,036 $,020,038
Addifonal Oepreciation(b) 46,950 992,318 2.071.319 2.950,321 3.984.443 §,033,888 6,138,080 7,317,564 8,547,203 9,776,981 11,081 903 12,411,972
Interest Expense (c) 26,531 522,821 1,080,564 1,511,035 1,997,981 2,510,682 3,019,462 3,550,881 4,085,775 4,593,949 §,115,679 $,620,581
Return on dett funded rate base (tf) 705,288 2,785,508 9,018 982 3,391,178 3,819,248 3,892,323 4,181,237 4454240 4,740,578 5,022,883 5,268,609 $921,822
Return on equity grassed up 2.120,754 8,885,994 9,823,669 10,743,280 11,532,268 12,408,838 13,287,677 14,165,813 15,055,050 15,BB7,446 16,879,945 17,448,063
Total revere requirement 18,401,435 62,752,911 85,124,024 75,189,279 78,978,589 83,071.478 87,281,355 91,559,910 85,985,091 100,393,737 104,887,288 109,387,489
Base Revenue Forecast (c} 17,959,067 65,584,777 69,399,797. 73,450,289 78,891,089 79,160,882 81,138,514 83,113.210 85,138,025 87,222,671 89,353,371 91,546,879
Excoss/(Oeficient) revenue over base forecast 2831,868 4208.773 (1.708.981) (2,085,540) {3.810,796) (6,112,854) (8.446.700) (10,855,088) (13,171,066) (15 503,916) (17,820,820)
Rotes:
BV = Book value EBIT = Earrungs before interest and taxes; EBITDA = Eamings before interest, tax, depreciation end amortization; N/A = nol applicable, NYC = Net workng capital OPEB = Other post employment benefits, P= Price, ROR * Rate of retum,
ROE = Fletum tn equity, TRY = Tangible book valve
{a) Based on discussions with Management this represents agreed payments to the Karognodi Water Authority
(d) Equals retum to debt holders on debt-fnenced porbone of acquisition.
Source of:
EY
©2014 by Emst & Young LLP. All rights reserved.
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_448
Fit WSe Statmye Aniysis - Comotdaind Page tala
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xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_449
City of Flint Exhibit D
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis - Consolidated Page 2 of 2
Discounted Cash Flow Method - Terminal value
Date of valuation: 31 March 2014
(US$)
Terminal value calculation - Consolidated
Normatized capital Constant model Normafized
2025 total operating revenues $91,546,879 FCFE, normalized $3,560,811
Long-term growth rate 20%
NWC requirement (a) 5.0% FCFE Terminal year growth rate 2.0%
Impbed Increase / (decreasa) in NWC ($89,752) FCFE, year ahead 3,632,027
Divided by: Capitalization rate 8.0%
Capitalized value at end of estimation period $45,400,343
Normalized debt-free cash flow Remaining debt funded acquisition payments (17,928,515)
EBITDA $28,202,853
Discount period 117
Depreciation (normalized) 26,523,332 Present value factor @ 10% 0.3580
Operating income $1,679,521 Termine! value $9,861,538
Interest expense (5,620,581)
Retum on debt funded rate base (5,521,822)
Eamings before taxes ($9,462,882)
Income taxes
Eamings after taxes
Add. Depreciation (normalized) 26,523,332
(Increase) / decrease in NWC. (89,752)
Less Principal repayments - Capex related (5,155,448)
Add’ Principal borrowings - Capex related 14,587,832
Less: Capital expenditures ___ (26,523,332)
Normalized FCFE $3,560,811
Notes:
EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes, FCFE = Free cash flow to equity; NWC = Debt-free net working capital
(a) Based on the consideration of City of Flint’s ten year average of net working capital as a percentage of revenue
Source of under
Draft Document, EY
All data subject to change upon completion of additional analysis. © 2014 by Emst & Young LLP. All rights reserved.
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_450
City of Flint Exhibit E
Flint WSC Strategic Analysis - Consolidated
Discounted cash flow analysts sensitivity - Revenue Build-Up{a)
Date of valuation: 31 March 2014
(uss)
For the 20
For the twelve month.
Et) 2020
Cost of water (a) 0 0 0 6,900,000 6 900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,300,000 6,900,000 6,900,000 6,900,000
Operating expenses 15,250,343 SAS 234 44,109,494 AZ SH 45.952,615 47,305,913 48,704,882 50,151,176 51,846 450 53,192,462 54,781,026 96,444,026
Extsting Depreciation {b} 4,251,571 5,020,038 §,020,036 5,020,036 5,020,036 $,020,036 5,020,036 §,020,038 §,020,038 5,020,036 §,020,036 §,020.036
Additional Deprectation[b) 46,950 992,318 2,071,319 2,950,321 3,954,443 $,033,688 6,138,060 7,317,564 6,547,203 9,776,881 11,081,803 12,411,972
Interest Expense (c} 26,531 $22,821 1,080,584 1,811,035 1,997,981 2.510.682 3,019,462 3,550,881 4,085,775 4,593,043 5,115,670 5,620,581
Return on debt funded rate basa (0) 705.286 2,785,508 3,018,682 3,391,174 3.619.248 3,892,323 4 181.237 4,454,440 4,740,578 5,022,863 5,268,689 §,921,822
Return on equity grossed up 2,120,754 8,885,994 9,823,689 10,743,280 11,532.268, 12,408,838 13,287,677 14,165,813 15,055,050 15,887,446 18,679,945 17,448,063
Total revenue requirement 18,401,435, 62,752,911 85,124,024 75,159,279 78,976,589 83,071,478 87,251,355 81,559,910 95,895,091 100,393,737 104,857,288 109,367,499
Base Revenue Forecast (c) 47,958,067 $5,585,777 69,399,797 73,450,289 76,891,049 79,160,882 81,138,514 83,113,210 85,139,025 87,222,671 89,353,371 91,548,879
Excess/{Deficien!) revenus over base forecast 2,831,888 4 275,773 (1,708,991) (2.085 540) {3,910,788} (6,112,681) (8448.70) (10,856,086) (13,171,068) (15,503 918) (17,820,620)
Motes”
BV = Book value, EBIT = Eamings belore interest and taxes; EBITDA = Eamings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, N/A = not applicable, NWC = Net working capital, OPEB = Other post employment benefits; P= Price, ROR = Rate of retum,
ROE = Retum on equity, TRY = Tangible book value
(a) Based on discussions with Management this represents agreed payments to the Karegnodi Water Authonty.
Draft Documert. EY
All data subject tp change upon completion of additional analysis. © 2014 by Ernst & Young LLP, All rights reserved,
xxxEND_PAGE:treasury01_b22_3033_3514_451
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